IPO Allotment Chance Calculator
At N× retail subscription, roughly 1 in N applications or better gets shares, and applying for more lots does not change that. Right now HD Fire Protect Ltd. has the longest odds: retail is 3.84× subscribed so far, about 26% per application.
Updated
An estimate from the subscription figure, not an official result. Applying for more lots in the retail category does not improve these odds.
Odds for current IPOs
| IPO | Status | Retail subscribed | Chance per application | Roughly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD Fire Protect Ltd. IPOMainboard · retail 3.84× so far | Open | 26% | ||
| Vaibhav Vyapaar Ltd. IPOSME · retail 0.20× so far | Open | 100% |
* Still open for bidding, so the figure will change until bidding closes.
How to improve your chances
Apply at the cut-off price so your bid is valid wherever the final price lands. Apply once per PAN; a second application from the same PAN gets both rejected. Family members applying from their own PANs and demat accounts each get a separate entry. If you hold shares of a listed parent company before the RHP date, check whether there is a shareholder quota.
Once allotment is out, check it on the IPO allotment status page.
Common questions
How is IPO allotment decided for retail investors?
When the retail category is oversubscribed, SEBI rules give as many applicants as possible the minimum application (one lot on mainboard IPOs, two lots on SME IPOs) by a computerised lottery. Every valid application is one entry. If the category is undersubscribed, every valid application gets the shares it bid for.
Does applying for more lots increase my chance of allotment?
No. In the retail category each application is one lottery entry whatever its size, and winners get the minimum application. Applying from different family members' PANs and demat accounts does improve the household's chances, because each is a separate entry.
How is the chance calculated?
The subscription figure counts shares bid against shares offered. If every applicant bid the minimum, about 1 in N applications would win at N× subscription. Many applicants bid for more lots, which means fewer applications and better odds, so 1 in N is a floor rather than an exact figure.
Does the shareholder or employee quota help?
Yes, if you are eligible. A shareholder or employee quota is allotted separately from the retail category, so eligible investors can apply in both and get two lottery entries.